Group A World Cup Scenarios

Scenarios for the 4 teams in Group A to see who advances to the second round:

Mexico:

- Wins group with a win

- Finishes second in the group with a draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a FRA-SA draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a better goal differential than the FRA-SA winner (Mexico at +2, FRA at -2, SA at -3)

Uruguay:

- Wins group with a win or a draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a FRA-SA draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a better goal differential than the FRA-SA winner (Uruguay at +3, FRA at -2, SA at -3)

France:

- Finishes second in the group with a win, a loss by Mexico or Uruguay and a better goal differential than the MEX-URU loser (FRA at -2, MEX at +2, URU at +3)

South Africa:

- Finishes second in the group with a win, a loss by Mexico or Uruguay and a better goal differential than the MEX-URU loser (SA at -3, MEX at +2, URU at +3)

Obviously looks like MEX and URU will go through here. Only hope for FRA/SA is a big win and a similar score in the MEX-URU game. But MEX and URU have little incentive to open the game up.

Nate Silver's odds put MEX at 96.2% to go through, URU at 98.3%, FRA at 3.7%, and SA at 1.8%.