Group B World Cup Scenarios

Scenarios for the last games in Group B:

- Argentina:

- Is through to the second round unless they lose and South Korea wins and they lose the 3-way goal differential tiebreaker between ARG, GRE, and SK (ARG currently at +4, SK at -1, GRE at -1). Which means ARG would have to lose to GRE by 3 to make this even a possibility.

- Greece:

- Is through with a win or draw and a Nigeria win

- Is through with a win and a Nigeria-South Korea draw

- Is through with a draw, a Nigeria-South Korea draw and Greece scores two more goals than South Korea

- Is through with a win, a South Korea win, and better goal differential than either South Korea or Argentina (GRE at -1, SK at -1, ARG at +4)

- Nigeria:

- Is through with a win and an Argentina win

- South Korea:

- Is through with a win and an Argentina win or draw

- Is through with a draw and an Argentina win

- Is through with a draw, an Argentina-Greece draw, and Greece does not outscore South Korea by 2 or more goals

- Is through with a win, a Greece win, and better goal differential than either Greece or Argentina (SK at -1, GRE at -1, ARG at +4)

Nate Silver's odds put Argentina at 100%, South Korea at 64.8%, Nigeria at 24.4%, and Greece at 10.9%. Somewhat unbelievable that Nigeria actually has a really good chance to advance with a win.