Group D Scenarios

Group D is easy.

The Netherlands is already thru to the 2nd round.

Cameroon is already eliminated.

Denmark:

- Advances with a win

Japan:

- Advances with a win or tie

Group C World Cup Scenarios

Scenarios for Group C:

- Slovenia:

- Wins group with a win

- Advances with a draw

- Advances with a loss and a USA-Algeria draw

- Advances with a loss, an Algeria win, and a tiebreaker win over Algeria

- England:

- Advances with a win

- Advances with a draw, a USA-Algeria draw, and scores 3 more goals than the USA

- USA:

- Advances with a win

- Advances with a draw and a Slovenia win

- Advances with a draw, a Slovenia-England draw and having more total goals than ENG

- Algeria:

- Advances with a win and a Slovenia win or draw

- Advances with a win, an England win, and a tiebreaker win over Slovenia

Nate Silver's odds put Slovenia at 66.7%, USA at 63.2%, England at 52%, and Algeria at 18.1%.

Group B World Cup Scenarios

Scenarios for the last games in Group B:

- Argentina:

- Is through to the second round unless they lose and South Korea wins and they lose the 3-way goal differential tiebreaker between ARG, GRE, and SK (ARG currently at +4, SK at -1, GRE at -1). Which means ARG would have to lose to GRE by 3 to make this even a possibility.

- Greece:

- Is through with a win or draw and a Nigeria win

- Is through with a win and a Nigeria-South Korea draw

- Is through with a draw, a Nigeria-South Korea draw and Greece scores two more goals than South Korea

- Is through with a win, a South Korea win, and better goal differential than either South Korea or Argentina (GRE at -1, SK at -1, ARG at +4)

- Nigeria:

- Is through with a win and an Argentina win

- South Korea:

- Is through with a win and an Argentina win or draw

- Is through with a draw and an Argentina win

- Is through with a draw, an Argentina-Greece draw, and Greece does not outscore South Korea by 2 or more goals

- Is through with a win, a Greece win, and better goal differential than either Greece or Argentina (SK at -1, GRE at -1, ARG at +4)

Nate Silver's odds put Argentina at 100%, South Korea at 64.8%, Nigeria at 24.4%, and Greece at 10.9%. Somewhat unbelievable that Nigeria actually has a really good chance to advance with a win.

Group A World Cup Scenarios

Scenarios for the 4 teams in Group A to see who advances to the second round:

Mexico:

- Wins group with a win

- Finishes second in the group with a draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a FRA-SA draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a better goal differential than the FRA-SA winner (Mexico at +2, FRA at -2, SA at -3)

Uruguay:

- Wins group with a win or a draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a FRA-SA draw

- Finishes second in the group with a loss and a better goal differential than the FRA-SA winner (Uruguay at +3, FRA at -2, SA at -3)

France:

- Finishes second in the group with a win, a loss by Mexico or Uruguay and a better goal differential than the MEX-URU loser (FRA at -2, MEX at +2, URU at +3)

South Africa:

- Finishes second in the group with a win, a loss by Mexico or Uruguay and a better goal differential than the MEX-URU loser (SA at -3, MEX at +2, URU at +3)

Obviously looks like MEX and URU will go through here. Only hope for FRA/SA is a big win and a similar score in the MEX-URU game. But MEX and URU have little incentive to open the game up.

Nate Silver's odds put MEX at 96.2% to go through, URU at 98.3%, FRA at 3.7%, and SA at 1.8%.